April 15, 2018
For starters, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which turned out to be absolutely true for many major and cryptocurrency pairs:
- EUR/USD. According to the graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to consolidate in the Pivot Point zone of the medium-term side channel in 2018. The level of 1.2215 was indicated as the lower limit, the upper one was 1.2355. At the same time, 35% of analysts suggested that the US dollar will continue to weaken, provoked by data on the labor market, and the pair would be able to break through 1.2355, rising above this level.
It was this scenario that was implemented. The pair climbed 115 points by the middle of the week, reaching the height of 1.2395, after which it turned and returned to where it had been expected - to the medium-term Pivot Point in the zone of 1.2328;
- The forecast for the pair GBP/USD had supposed a certain growth, but not the one that really happened. Recall that the growth above the horizon 1.4200 was supported by only a quarter of analysts, but the dollar weakening surpassed even their expectations, and the pair almost reached the level of 1.4300 on Friday. However, the strength of the bulls dried up soon, and it rolled back to the level of 1.4240;
- The forecast made by most experts on the pair USD/JPY, suggested continuation of the medium-term lateral trend, which began in mid-February, and its growth to a height of 108.00. That's exactly what happened. The pair moved within the corridor 106.60-107.40 for the whole week, after which it tried to move one level above, but, having reached the height of 107.77, could not get fixed there and returned to the highs of the previous week;
- The forecast for cryptocurrencies turned out to be absolutely correct as well. All major crypto-pairs went up as expected.
The script for the BTC/USD provided for an increase to 7,820-8,360. In fact, the pair reached the mark of 8,200.
For the ethereum, the target was the zone 440-511, it managed to climb even slightly higher - to the height of 527, after which, it returned to the 490 mark by the end of the week.
For the LTC/USD, the scenario envisaged a rise to 155-175, however, even though the pair went up confidently, the bulls' enthusiasm dried up a little earlier - at the height of 133.
And, finally, ripple. The experts set a height of 0.67 as the main target for it, to where it got on Friday evening.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. 60% of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1, continue to insist on the pair going down first to the level of 1.2215, and then, possibly, to the minimum of the medium-term side corridor at the horizon 1.2155. However, the geopolitical situation in which Syria is involved, as well as the trade war with China, and a number of other factors, can make influence the situation and lead to a further weakening of the dollar. In this case, as 40% of analysts believe as well as most of the oscillators on D1, the pair can continue to move to the resistance levels at the top of the channel, these are 1.2410, 1.2475 and 1.2525;
- Almost all the indicators, both trend ones and oscillators, both on H4 and D1 (85%) are determined to buy the GBP/USD. But as for the experts, here the bulls' advantage is not so impressive: 60% by 40%. The main support is located at 1.4145, then 1.4065 and 1.4010. The resistance levels are 1.4345 and 1.4425.
It should be noted that in the medium term, the advantage is shifted to the bears, and here 60% of analysts vote not for growth, but for the fall of the pair, expecting its fall to the March lows around 1.3760;
- USD/JPY. Almost all indicators are painted green following the trends of the last days and weeks. However, we should pay attention to the fact that the pair is at the upper boundary of the strong resistance zone, which can be traced starting from this February. More than 70% of experts believe that the pair will try to gain a foothold above this zone, and its weekly fluctuations will occur in the range of 107.00-108.50. However, one third of analysts are sure that the pair will return to the side corridor 106.65-107.00, and, if it breaks its lower border, it may drop another 100 points lower, reaching the local bottom at 105.65. This development is also confirmed by the graphical analysis on D1;
- As for cryptocurrencies, experts expect this week that the pair BTC/USD will move along the level of 8,000, making fluctuations in the range of 7,570-8,575. ETH/USD may try to conquer the height of 600, but the ethereum will not be able to get fixed there and it will return to the levels around 485-510. For the pair LTC/USD, experts point to the height of 145 as the target, and to the zone 0.70-0.740 for the pair XRP/USD.
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Roman Butko, NordFX