March 6, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 08 - 12, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 08 - 12, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. There is a saying, “a new broom sweeps clean”. If the previous US President Donald Trump were in the shoes of Joe Biden now, he would probably call the head of the Fed Jerome Powell a "traitor" for the fact that his speech on Thursday February 04 literally brought down the stock markets of America. Powell stayed indifferent to the surge in US Treasury yields, which closed at an annual high. At the same time, he hinted at the possibility of premature tightening of monetary policy.

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February 27, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 01-05, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 01-05, 2021First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. As we expected, the speech by the head of the Fed turned out to be quite interesting. Jerome Powell presented to Congress a semi-annual report on monetary policy, from which it followed that not everything is as good as we would like as far as the recovery of the US economy is concerned. The surge in economic activity in the summer of 2020 was followed by the slowsown of the growth rate. The decline in unemployment has slowed down, and household expenditures are not growing either.

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February 20, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 22 - 26, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 22 - 26, 2021First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The sharp rise in bond yields in the US and Europe has hit not only the stock market, but also the “carry trade”, providing support to funding currencies, primarily the euro and the US dollar. Recall that the funding currency is usually a currency with a low interest rate. Implementing the carry trade strategy, traders borrow it and then deposit it in another currency, such as developing countries, with a higher rate. And now the fall in risk sentiment has led to an exit from such deals, and the strengthening of both EUR and USD. Apparently, this can explain the consolidation of this pair. And if the preponderance was on the side of the dollar in the first half of the week, then, investors began to buy up the cheaper euro starting from Wednesday, February 17. As a result, having started the week at the level of 1.2120, the EUR/USD pair ended it almost there, at the level of 1.2115;

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February 13, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 15 - 19, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 15 - 19, 2021First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. It often happens that monthly forecasts come true faster than weekly ones. That was what happened this time as well. Recall that only 30% of experts expected the EUR/USD pair to grow in the weekly perspective. In the transition to the monthly forecast, those were in majority already, 60%.

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February 6, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 08 - 12, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 08 - 12, 2021First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The dollar has been growing throughout the week, fueled by optimism about the imminent recovery of the US economy. The incidence of coronavirus is down sharply: in just three weeks since the peak, the 7-day moving average has dropped by almost 50%. And a successful vaccination, complete with a new economic aid package, can generally lead to an economic boom in the country.

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January 30, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 01-05, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 01-05, 2021First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The trade wars unleashed by the previous US President Trump have just seemingly subsided, but now we can "congratulate" everyone on the start of a new - currency - war. And it could prove equally exciting and unpredictable. This time, it was the European Central Bank, headed by Christine Lagarde, that declared hostilities. The adversary was, as you might guess, the US Federal Reserve System.

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January 23, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 25 – 29, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 25 – 29, 2021First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. We published a chart seven days ago that clearly showed how the correlation between the S&P500 index and EUR/USD was broken in early January. But now everything is back to normal: the S&P500 continued its growth, reaching a historic maximum of 3859.84 on January 21, and the EUR/USD pair went up with it, fully justifying the forecast of the majority (65%) of experts. Groping on Monday the local bottom at 1.2053, the euro then rose to 1.2190, the final chord sounded slightly lower, at 1.2170.

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January 16, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 18 - 22, 2021

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 18 - 22, 2021First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the past week, the majority of experts (60%) were in favor of reducing the pair first to support 1.2100, and then, possibly, another 50 points lower. Almost everything happened as forecasted: the EUR/USD pair was at the level of 1.2075 at the end of the trading week.

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January 9, 2021

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 11 - 15, 2021

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 11 - 15, 2021First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The dollar has been falling, and the EUR/USD pair has been rising accordingly since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic last March. And now it is no longer far from its Q1 2018 highs. True, the result of the last three weeks can be considered zero. And the blame is not only the Christmas and New Year holidays, but also the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds, coupled with the hawkish statements of the Fed representatives.

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January 3, 2021

Forecast 2021: What to Expect from the Euro and the Dollar

Forecast 2021: What to Expect from the Euro and the DollarIf someone asks which currency pair is the most important and most liquid on Forex, the answer will follow immediately. Even a beginner will say: “Of course, EUR/USD”. There is even nothing to doubt about this: the trading volume for this pair reaches $1.1 trillion per day. These currencies represent two of the world's most powerful economies, and the US dollar is the first most important reserve currency. Most central banks continue to store large volumes of their gold and foreign exchange reserves (over 60%) in US dollars. The euro comes in second with over 22%.

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December 27, 2020

Forecast 2021: Is Bitcoin Worth Investing In?

Forecast 2021: Is Bitcoin Worth Investing In?Is it the "gold of the XXI century" or a soap bubble about to burst? We have repeatedly discussed the advantages and disadvantages of bitcoin over the past year,  and analyzed the reasons for its ups and downs. Therefore, we decided to cite only the opinions of experts regarding the prospects for the main cryptocurrency in this review.

You may decide to be patient and invest in bitcoin for a long-term profitability. Or, on the contrary, you do not want to take risks and prefer to forget this word altogether. In general, the decision to buy, sell bitcoin or simply do nothing is always yours.

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December 19, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 21 - 25, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 21 - 25, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the most popular strategy in the market after “buy shares” is “sell the dollar”. Speculative short positions in this currency have risen to a two-year high. The USD index (DXY) has fallen below 90, while it was at 102.82 on March 15, 2020. As for the retreat of the dollar in recent days, it is taking place against the background of the discussion in the US Congress of an additional package of fiscal stimuli. After all, every new dollar poured into the country's economy will lead to a decrease in its purchasing power.

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December 12, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 14 - 18, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 14 - 18, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. As expected, the European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged, at the same level of 0%. The euro had a chance to somewhat weaken its position against the dollar. However, it missed it due to the ECB's decision to ramp up the volume of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by another €500bn and a subsequent comment from the head of that bank Christine Lagarde. Actually, there was nothing unexpected in this decision, we predicted such an outcome a week ago. In addition, it definitely fell into the middle of the market participants' forecast of €400-600 billion. But it was precisely this predictability that prevented the EUR/USD pair from turning south.

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December 5, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 07 - 11, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 07 - 11, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The dollar continues to fall, the euro continues to rise. The pair has traveled from 1.1600 to 1.2175 since early November. The main reasons for the weakening of the US currency lie in the growing global risk appetite. Against the background of positive news about vaccines against coronavirus, the market has believed in the imminent recovery of the global economy. Moreover, not the US economy, but the economies of other countries, including developing. The situation in the United States itself is not encouraging: the main indicators, including business activity and employment of the population, turned red here last week. Suffice it to say that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) collapsed from 610K in October to 245K in November, due to new quarantine measures.

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November 28, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 30 - December 04, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 30 - December 04, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the past week, most experts (65%) preferred the European currency. Graphical analysis, 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on D1 also sided with the bulls. And this forecast turned out to be almost correct. “Almost”, because it was expected that, having broken through the resistance of 1.1900, the EUR/USD pair will reach the zone 1.2000-1.2100. However, it managed to rise only to the height of 1.1960 at the very end of the working week. Perhaps this is due to the weekend in the United States - Thanksgiving on Thursday November 26th and Black Friday on the 27th.

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November 21, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 23 - 27, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 23 - 27, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Last week, we talked again about complete uncertainty in the market, when investors just shrug their shoulders, not knowing what to expect in the near future. And then the forecast was appropriate: 50% of the experts sided with the bulls, 40% supported the bears, and the remaining 10% took a neutral position. And it turned out to be the most correct: the pair moved in a very narrow range of 1.1815-1.1890 for the whole week and completed the five-day period in its central part, at the level of 1.1858.

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November 14, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 16 - 20, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 16 - 20, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Last week, we started talking about complete uncertainty in the market, when investors just shrug their shoulders, not knowing what to expect in the near future. Yes, Joe Biden has won the presidential election. It seems to have won. Since Donald Trump's team has already collected a lot of facts about the violations and falsifications and is going to challenge the election results in court. For the time being, a number of state bodies, including even the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), refused to support the change of president. The distribution of seats in the US Senate remains questionable, and the priorities in the country's policy, including fiscal measures and programs to support the economy, depend on this.

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November 7, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 09 - 13, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 09 - 13, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. As we expected in the previous forecast, thanks to Joe Biden's victory in the U.S. presidential election, the growth of U.S. stocks and encouraging reports from the front against COVID-19, the euro and other competitors of the dollar can very quickly recover the positions previously lost.

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October 31, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 02 - 06, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 02 - 06, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. It seems that the market has decided not to pay much attention to the US presidential election. Investors are much more concerned about what is happening with the second wave of the pandemic COVID-19 in the Old and New Worlds, and what steps will be taken by regulators on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

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October 24, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 26 - 30, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 26 - 30, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR / USD. 40% of analysts predicted the growth of this pair to the 1.1900 zone and were right: the local weekly high was recorded at 1.1880, and the five-day period ended at 1.1860.

Strong macro statistics from the United States, as well as a record increase in the number of COVID-19 infected in the Old World, seemed to reverse the pair's trend south on October 21. But then Europe, together with Germany, showed an increase in business activity. This reduced the chances of a build-up of the European quantitative easing (QE) program and further growth in bond prices, which allowed the pair to return to its weekly highs;

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October 17, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 19 - 23, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 19 - 23, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The market is now ruled by two main factors: the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the upcoming November 3 presidential election in the United States.

A rise of nearly 900,000 in applications for unemployment benefits showed that the labor market and the U.S. economy need more stimulus measures. And although, according to US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, an agreement on such measures between Democrats and Republicans before the election is unlikely, negative statistics have tempered greatly the market risk appetite and pushed down stock indices such as the S&P500. This clearly benefited the US currency: by Thursday, the dollar gained 135 points, and the EUR/USD pair reached a local bottom at 1.1685. This was followed by a rebound downward, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.1715;

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October 10, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 12 - 16, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 12 - 16, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. We have repeatedly written about the ECB's fear of strengthening the euro as it poses a threat to the recovery of the Eurozone economy. However, neither the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde nor her colleagues want to start a currency war with the US Federal Reserve. Therefore, try to turn the market around not by actions, but by words.

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October 3, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 05 - 09, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 05 - 09, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The question that we tried to resolve last week was whether this pair will continue its fall or return again to channel 1.1700-1.2010. Experts couldn't give any clear answer then. Their votes were divided as follows: 30% favored the fall of the pair, 30% favored its rise and 40% took a neutral position. As a result, the pair surely did not continue to fall, but it is also difficult to call its movement returning to the channel: having reached the local high at 1.1700 on Thursday, October 01, the pair turned around and completed the five-day period at 1.1715.

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September 26, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 28 - October 02, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 28 - October 02, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The overwhelming majority of experts (75%), supported by the oscillators indicating that this pair is overbought, expected its correction to the south. The argument was that the pair ended the week near the strong resistance zone of 1.1900 on Friday, September 18. The above scenario came true 100%, and finally breaking through the mid-term support at 1.1700, the EUR/USD pair flew downward last week, finding the local bottom at 1.1610.

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September 19, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 21 - 25, 2020

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 21 - 25, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. According to Reuters sources, the rate close to 1.2000 currently suits both sides, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. Looking at the chart, one could clarify: not 1.2000, but 1.1850. After all, it is along this horizon the pair has been moving for seven weeks. But, in fact, the difference of 150 points has no fundamental significance here.

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September 12, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 14 - 18, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 14 - 18, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Following the ECB meeting on September 11, the Euro tried to fly up and even reached 1.1920, but literally an hour later the market decided that all this was not so important, and the quotes of the EUR/USD pair quickly returned to their original positions. As a result, as one third of the experts expected, the pair could not break out of the 1.1700-1.2010 channel, along which it has been moving for seven weeks. Moreover, its trading range narrowed to 1.1750-1.1920, returning to the values of the last decade of August.   

So, what actually happened?

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September 5, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 07 - 11, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 07 - 11, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. The statement of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole is still the most discussed among investors and experts. The Fed decided to take the most serious step in monetary policy starting in 2012, announcing its plans to aim for an “average inflation rate of 2%.” This means that the regulator will not tighten its monetary policy even if the inflation rate exceeds these very two percent.

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August 29, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 31 - September 04, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 31 - September 04, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. 60% of analysts once again tried to give priority to the dollar last week, hoping that the EUR/USD pair will still break the support of 1.1700. In the opinion of the remaining 40%, it should have stayed within the side channel 1.1700-1.1910, which actually happened. Moreover, its finish took place near the upper border of this corridor.

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August 22, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 24 - 28, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 24 - 28, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. We noted in the previous forecast that only a clear breakdown of the channel 1.1700-1.1910 in one direction or another can give a clear idea of the dominant trend in conditions of subsiding activity. It is in this range that the pair has been moving for four weeks. But the breakdown never happened: after all it is August, holidays, and no extra events capable of stirring up markets, have not yet happened. The situation shows that investors are ready to buy back even very small drawdowns and close positions with very moderate profits. As a result, the breakthrough to 1.1965 did not bring success to the bulls, and the pair returned to the sidelines1.1700-1.1910, having finished the week not far from its central line, in the 1.1795 zone;

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August 15, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 17 - 21, 2020

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 17 - 21, 2020First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. Citing data from the Labor Department, optimists say that the U.S. economic recovery is gaining momentum. The pandemic-stricken labour market is beginning to recover and may have already overcome the worst stage of the crisis. Unemployment in July fell to 10.2% (against the April peak of 15%). 1.8 million people returned to work in July, a trend that continues for the third month in a row.

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